Sunday, April 21, 2013

Mock Draft 1st Round 2.0: Best Case Scenario V.S. Probable Scenario

  • Written By Sklar Darel+Rishab Jain

    When the First Round of the NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday night, each team has several needs and desired players to fill those needs. Whether those desired players are on the board when the teams select is never a certainty, but after reviewing many mock drafts and team needs, We've decided to take each teams probable selection and compare it with the best case selection. Obviously the best case will trump the probable selection, but how dramatically different a teams season outlook can be based on these picks is astounding. With that being said, lets begin.

    *Note: Since Seattle, Washington, and Tampa Bay have no first rounders, they won't be included in this segment.

    Firstly, here is my mock draft. This is done based on team need and the likelyhood of players being selected.

    1. Kansas City Chiefs:
    Probable: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
    Best Case: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

    Quick Note: Joeckel is the safest pick, and the best tackle in the draft. He also fills the Chiefs biggest need.

    Why it's a best case senario: Joeckel is the draft's best tackle. His size and agility make him a playmaker, which is just what the Chiefs need with the first pick.

    2. Jacksonville Jaguars:
    Probable: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
    Best Case: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

    Quick Note: J.J. Watt outsacked the entire Jags defense last year. Jordan is an explosive pass rusher who can turn into a franchise cornerstone.

    Why it's a best case scenario: Jordan is an athletic specimine, who can get to the quarterback at will. The Jags need talent across the board, and Jordan is one of the best
    players in the draft.

    3. Oakland Raiders:
    Probable: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida
    Best Case: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida

    Quick Note: Floyd dominated in the combine, and fills a position of need for the Raiders. He has risen to the top of the defensive tackle rankings.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Raiders need a DT to spearhead their defense. Floyd is the best DT in the draft after a dominant combine, and could be the best defensive player in Oakland for a while.

    4. Philadelphia Eagles: 
    Probable: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
    Best Case: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

    Quick Note: The departure of Nnamdi Asomough has left a hole at corner. The Eagles lose out on Dion Jordan, but Milliner still has shutdown potential.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Eagles have big needs at LT and CB. While Milliner is the draft's best CB, Joeckel is the draft's best player. If Eric Fisher goes at 1, the Eagles would be thrilled to get Joeckel.

    5. Detroit Lions:
    Probable: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
    Best Case: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

    Quick Note: The Lions need a guy to protect Matt Stafford. Fisher has the highest upside of any tackle, and would fit in perfectly in Detroit.

    Why it's best case scenario: Joeckel will be long gone at this point, but Fisher has higher upside. With a possible running game now in Detroit, the value of a franchise left tackle can't be ignored.

    6. Cleveland Browns:
    Probable: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
    Best Case: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

    Quick Note: The Browns really, really, really wanted Milliner, but the Eagles snagged him first. They now turn to Smith, who has the potential to be an elite NFL signal caller.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Browns need a corner to play opposite Joe Haden. Adding Milliner would make cornerback a strength in Cleveland, especially with 2 young potential shutdown guys.

    7. Arizona Cardinals:
    Probable: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
    Best Case: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

    Quick Note: The Cardinals need some offensive line help. Fisher would be the dream, but Johnson isn't a bad settlement.

    Why it's best case scenario: If Fisher somehow falls to 7, the Cardinals would get a franchise left tackle, something they desperately need. Johnson has a risky side, and a lower ceiling than Fisher and Joeckel, which is why Fisher would be fantastic for the Cards here.

    8. Buffalo Bills:
    Probable: Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse
    Best Case: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

    Quick Note: Kevin Kolb isn't the guy at quarterback. The Bills have some serious needs other than QB, but they must address them later in the draft. Nassib has great potential and could be the franchise quarterback Buffalo has been looking for.

    Why it's best case scenario: Smith is the better quarterback.  He has the stronger arm and more mobility. The Bills would like Nassib because of the Doug Marrone connection, but Smith has a ton of upside in comparison.

    9. New York Jets:
    Probable: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
    Best Case: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

    Quick Note: The Jets could go with Ansah, but they really like Mingo. They also need a pass rushing linebacker off the edge, and Mingo's technique is far better than Ansah's.

    Why it's best case scenario: The trade of Darrelle Revis opens up an obvious need for cornerback outside of Antonio Cromartie. Dee Milliner also has shutdown potential, and would be a great selection for the Jets.

    10. Tennessee Titans: 
    Probable: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
    Best Case: Dee Milliner

    Quick Note: The Titans need a DT, and Lotulelei is very close to being the best one. His heart condition keeps him from the top 5, but his upside is as high as anyone's.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Titans biggest need is at corner, and Milliner is the only one worthy of a top ten selection. If the Eagles, Lions, Browns, and Jets somehow pass on the Titans, then the Titans would be ecstatic.

    11. San Diego Chargers:
    Probable: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
    Best Case: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

    Quick Note: The Chargers wanted Lane Johnson, but settle for the best blocking guard in the draft. Warmack will help in the run game as well as keep Phillip Rivers upright and protected.

    Why it's best case scenario: Joeckel and Fisher are gone at this point, and Phillip Rivers hasn't had a stable offensive line in a long time. Johnson would be a perfect fit in San Diego, but Arizona looms large at 7 overall with a similar need.

    12. Miami Dolphins:
    Probable: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
    Best Case: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

    Quick Note: The Phins lost Sean Smith and Vontae Davis over the last few years, and need a new corner. Rhodes has the size to run with the leagues tallest wideouts right away.

    Why it's best case scenario: I don't know why the Chargers would pass on Johnson, but if they do the Dolphins would end his slide. The departure of Jake Long opens up a need to protect Ryan Tannehill's blind side, something Johnson would do a great job of.

    13. New York Jets:
    Probable: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
    Best Case: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

    Quick Note: The Jets need a dangerous playmaker on offense. No one is more dangerous than Tavon Austin, whose speed is second to none in the draft.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Jets love Mingo, and if they get Milliner at 9 and Mingo is on the board at 13, they'd be the happiest team in the league. Mingo is a polished pass rusher that would fit in perfectly with Rex Ryan's system.

    14. Carolina Panthers:
    Probable: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
    Best Case: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

    Quick Note: Richardson is a fine defensive end that can contribute immediately in the run game. He helps spearhead a very deep class of defensive tackles.

    Why it's best case scenario: Lotulelei is a potential top 5 pick. The Panthers are in desperate need of a defensive tackle, and Lotulelei could be the draft's best when it's all said and done.

    15. New Orleans Saints:
    Probable: Ziggy Ansah, OLB, BYU
    Best Case: Ziggy Ansah, OLB, BYU

    Quick Note: The Saints need a pass rusher off the edge. Ansah is incredibly raw but immensely talented and gifted offensively. It's a surprise Ansah falls this far.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Saints get one of the best prospects in the draft. Ansah's athleticism for his position is second to none. While this would be a huge drop for Ansah, he'd fit in well in New Orleans.

    16. St. Louis Rams: 
    Probable: Kenny Vaccarro, S, Texas
    Best Case: Tavon Austin, West Virginia

    Quick Note: The Rams have 2 picks and 2 major needs: Safety and Wide receiver. Vaccarro is the draft's best safety, and his elite ball skills could make him a standout in St. Louis.

    Why it's best case scenario: Austin is the best wide receiver in the draft. While he'll most likely be off the board at 16, the Rams need a number 1 guy and Austin has the talent to be just that.

    17. Pittsburgh Steelers:
    Probable: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
    Best Case: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

    Quick Note: The Steelers must replace James Harrison's production off the end. Jones has had some injury concerns and had a weak pro day, but the potential for greatness is present.

    Why it's best case scenario: Mingo could really fall in this draft due to the surplus of pass rushers. However Jarvis Jones injury problems pose a more apparent risk than Mingo has.

    18. Dallas Cowboys:
    Probable: Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC
    Best Case: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

    Quick Note: The Cowboys offensive line needs retooling. Cooper has top ten potential, and he is a fantastic run blocker.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Cowboys need a safety, and Vaccaro is the draft's best. While he has many potential suitors in the top 16, he could potentially fall to the Cowboys, where he would stand out in the NFC East.

    19. New York Giants:
    Probable: Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
    Best Case: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

    Quick Note: Arthur Brown's speed makes him an elite NFL prospect. Mathias Kiwanuka's move to DE opens up a hole at outside linebacker, a hole Brown can fill for quite a while.

    Why it's best case scenario: Rhodes is the best corner who could be available this late (Milliner won't drop out of the top 10), and the Giants secondary was absymal last year. The addition of Aaron Ross helps, but Rhodes could start from day 1.

    20. Chicago Bears:
    Probable: Alec Ogeltree, ILB, Georgia
    Best Case: Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State

    Quick Note: The successor to Brian Urlacher in Chicago has to be addressed in the first few rounds. Ogeltree has the skills to be the guy in the midde of the Bears D.

    Why it's best case scenario: Brown can also play inside linebacker, and his competitive fire and speed would make him perfect for Chigago. His lack of size only makes him play harder, and he would be the focal point of the Bears D for years to come.

    21. Cincinatti Bengals:
    Probable:  D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
    Best Case: Kenny Vaccarro, S, Texas

    Quick Note: Cincinatti needs a right tackle, especially with the departed Andre Smith. Fluker dominated at Alabama and could be a superb right tackle in the NFL.

    Why it's best case scenario: The Bengals need safety help, and Vaccaro is the class of the draft at safety. He has elite coverage and ball skills for a safety, and would make the Bengals defense even more formidable.

    22: St. Louis Rams:
    Probable: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
    Best Case: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

    Quick Note: Patterson fills an immediate need at wide receiver. Tavon Austin is certainly off the board at this point (maybe even to the Rams at 16) and Patterson is the next best wideout.

    Why it's best case scenario: I have Vaccarro going at 16 to the Rams, but they would rather take Tavon Austin and hope Vaccarro drops to 22. He most likely won't, but the potential pairing of Austin and Vaccaro in the first round is superb.

    23. Minnesota Vikings:
    Probable: Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
    Best Case: Alec Ogeltree, ILB, Georgia

    Quick Note: The Vikings need an inside linebacker, and despite the contraversey surrounding Te'o, he's a first round talent. The Vikings get an emotional leader and a great football player.

    Why it's best case scenario: Ogeltree has speed that Te'o simply doesn't have. The possibility of Ogeltree here is very realistic, and he has more pro potential than Te'o.

    24. Indianapolis Colts:
    Probable: Bjoen Werner, DE, Florida State
    Best Case: Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC
    Quick Note: Dwight Freeney's production off the edge will be missed. The German born Bjoen Werner can make up for it and more after a stellar year in the ACC for the Seminoles.

    Why it's best case scenario: Cooper is a potentialt top ten pick. The Colts need an offensive guard. The only 2 first round talents at guard are Warmack and Cooper, and Cooper has the best chance of dropping.

    25. Minnesota Vikings:
    Probable: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
    Best Case: Xavier Rhodes

    Quick Note: The Vikings need to replace Antoine Winfield. Trufant stood out at the combine and has the cover skills to be a number 1 corner in Minnesota.

    Why it's best case scenario : Rhodes is great at defending the taller wideouts. He could be a number 1 corner in Minnesota. However, their are several teams such as the Jets, Giants, and Dolphins that need cornerbacks, and Rhodes would be great in purple and gold.

    26. Green Bay Packers:
    Probable: Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
    Best Case: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

    Quick Note: The Packers offensive line needs a renovation, and Watson can help. He has tremendous athleticism, which has had him rising in many draft boards.

    Why it's best case scenario: Fluker is a stud right tackle who would dominate in the NFL. He could drop because of Cincinatti's more pressing need at safety, but don't be surpised if Fluker is playing at Lambeau next year.

    27. Houston Texans: Keenan Allen, WR, California
    Best Case: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

    Quick Note: The Texans need a number 2 wide receiver next to Andre Johnson. Allen has number 1 potential, and will make an immediate contribution to the Texan's offense.

    Why it's best case scenario: Patterson is better than Allen, and doesn't have the drug rumors circulating like Allen. Allen is still a great pick, but the Texans would feel better if they snagged Patterson.

    28. Denver Broncos:
    Probable: Cornelius Carradine, DE, Florida State
    Best Case: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

    Quick Note: The Broncos must replace Elvis Dumervil with a pass rushing offensive linebacker. Carradine's explosiveness make him a tremendous pick this late in the first round.

    Why it's best case scenario: Jones is a top 10 talent, whos spinal issues could drop him to the bottom of the first round. His skill as a pass rusher exceed those of Carradine.

    29. New England Patriots:
    Probable: D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
    Best Case: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

    Quick Note: Hayden's story is remarkable: His chest was cracked open at one point, and now he's a first round talent. He would be even higher if he wasn't a walking medical miracle.

    Why it's best case scenario: Trufant is a safer a pick than Hayden, because one hit to the chest could be career ending. Trufant, paired with Aqib Talib, could make up a solid starting cornerback tandem.

    30. Atlanta Falcons:
    Probable: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
    Best Case: Jarvis Jones

    Quick Note: Atlanta needs a pass rusher up front. Datone Jones is a true defensive end who would make an immediate impact rushing the passer.

    Why it's best case scenario: Same reason's as Denver. Jarvis Jones is more of an outside linebacker, but he can play defensive end. His talent exceeds Datone Jones' in a pass rushing regard.

    31. San Francisco 49ers:
    Probable: Jonathan Cyprien, S, FIU
    Best Case: Jonathan Cyprien, S, FIU

    Quick Note: Cyprien's combine assured him a spot in the first round. It's still a wonder he falls to 31, but San Francisco's need at safety is immediately answered by Cyprien.

    Why it's best case scenario: Cyprien is a fantastic safety and a hard hitter. His hard-nosed style of play would fit in perfectly with the Niners vaunted defense.

    32. Baltimore Ravens:
    Probable: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
    Best Case: Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame

    Quick Note: The heir to Ray Lewis must be selected in the first few rounds. Minter is a tackling machine who can fill in and replace Lewis in the Baltimore D.

    Why it's best case scenario: While John Harbaugh clearly wasn't impressed with Te'o's combine, his emotional intangibles and ability to lead help him exemplify Ray Lewis. He would fit in great in Baltimore.

    Thanks for reading!

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